Conditions: Moderate high temperatures with low temperatures in the low 50’s as you go north. Rain rates no mention in the forecasts.

Big Picture: Simple and unappealing. A high pressure of 1028 MB will appear over the lake on Saturday and then “stall”.

Winds: The best forecast winds are NE 10-15, however these are supposed to end by noon Saturday. After that there is a lot of 5-10 knots, and many periods where unspecified light winds are predicted. Direction begins at NE and goes around to SW by Sunday night.

Main Sailing Mode: Once again ready yourself for light air. Lots of food and water for those extra hours on the water.

Option I: It appears that sometime Sunday the breeze may wander from NE to SW. Essentially this means the wind is switching to the prevailing direction. This shift could mean a switch from on the wind to off the wind. Maximizing this shift may mean the race.

Option II: With the expected light air bigger boats both in fleet and within class should be favored. If you are a smaller boat following the big boys will not pay. Start thinking of alternatives now. Maybe this is the year to go outside the Manitous or Beaver Island?

Special Situation: There’s is large difference in water temperature as measured by the two weather buoys on the lake. At the south buoy off Milwaukee the water is 67 degrees. At the north buoy on a line with the Manitou Islands the water temperature is 59°. To benefit from breeze near the shore a 10 degree temperature difference is needed between land and water temperature. With the warm water in the south half of the lake there will be no benefit to hugging the shore. From the Manitous on the shore should pay.

Record Chances: Genuine Risk will be after Pyewacket’s record set in 2002. 2002 was considered a fast race. The forecast does not promise a fast race in ‘04. Looks like Pyewacket’s record has a chance to stand. Remember from Chicago to the Manitous Pyewacket averaged 20.5 knots! No doubt Genuine Risk can achieve these speeds but not in the winds that are predicted.

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