Conditions: Temperatures should be reasonable ranging between just below 80 down to low 50’s. There’s about a 10 degree difference in temperature between Port Huron and the Island. Water temperatures are 55 to 60 degrees. Thunderstorm possibilities for Saturday night. FYI the northern Lake Huron wx buoy Station 45003 is offline.

Big Picture: A 1000 MB will pass to the north today followed by another low of 1010 MB. By late Saturday a high of 1020 MB will move in. This high is just entering Minnesota meaning how it will affect things is no certain thing.

Winds: Direction starts NE and the goes north. Velocity is strongest at the start decreasing as the fleet goes north. Monday the dreaded word variable shows up. I can forsee a not uncommon situation with the bigger boats at the dock while the bulk of the fleet struggles.

Main Sailing Mode: Main mode looks to be light to moderate. Weight center to forward as often in light air bow down is best. As things look lighter later in the race don’t skimp on provisions as high concentration will be needed towards the finish.

Option I: I believe that playing the shore line may often be a good option. Especially Sunday morning there should be a good breeze developed by the cool water and warm land.

Option II: With a consensus forecast that varies little I see small chances for success on the edges. Conditions should be consistent so small bore tactics all the way may pay the best. Staying with your fleet and working the boat hard will pay over trying to find your ‘own breeze’ which I don’ see developing given the conditions.

Option III: Italian ocean racer Giovanni Soldini is currently racing across the Atlantic. Soldini’s strategy is summed up this way ““We’re following the edge of a high pressure zone and so we’re sailing by the barometer, keeping away from areas where the pressure is lower. So we end up zig-zagging.” The high pressure will track west to east and appears to be aimed for northern Lake Huron. A vigilant barometer watch may help avoide some effects of this high. One of the bad places to be is the edge of a high, as this is where the highest pressure exists. Digging into the high to benefit from the high to low gradient maybe an option. Your barometer will tell you if it is.

Special Situation: With the breeze expected to decrease as the fleet enters the end game I think any distance gained while the wind holds will be extremely valuable. If you can pick up a lead while there is breeze you will be in a classic covering position. I’d rather be ahead and have to nervously cover than be behind and have to perform tactical gyrations towards the finish. Short term moves that get you north, as near the finish as possible, may turn out to be long term pluses.

Record Chances: Genuine Risk is certainly perceived as having a chance to break the mono hull record set by Alchemy last year. The time was approximately 28 hours at an average of 9.21 knots. Genuine Risk is untested in race mode and this week dismasted while training. Still, she has technology, and a 130 foot tall mast in her favor. That 130 foot mast is key. At 130 feet there can be 10 to 15% greater wind speeds. So, even though winds are expected to be light they are not that light for Genuine Risk which should break Alchemy’s 2003 record.

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