Queens Cup

Conditions: This morning it was 40 degrees in Muskegon…summer conditions hardly. Pack the woollies and the fuzzies as overnite it’s expected to be in the 40’s, you’ll have wind chills in the 30’s.

Big Picture: A high pressure ridge will be the controlling factor now until Saturday. Pressure in this ridge is approx. 1020 MB. A look out my window and a peak at the satellite images show clear skys….an absence of weather making clouds. There’s a good long space between isobars on the surface map…isobar A over northern Lake Michigan, no change until almost Kentucky.

Winds: From the looks of it if you show over 15 true, send your wind instruments in for repair. All velocity #’s are 15 or below, with a large concentration in the 5-10 area.

Direction: Expect the most breeze near start time. It looks like a moderate south westerly say 7-10 knots. Waves will be minimal. As you head east look for the wind to drop and stay below 10. Direction will go from SW to by
sundown, to West by midnite, WNW by dawn and NNW a little later.

Main Sailing Mode Mostly this will put you off the wind. Likely you will want to be working on creating apparent wind, be it my putting the pole on the headstay, or using an A kite or Code 0. Lighten ship, consider leaving storm sails ahore, keep the weight low and centered…consider a forward crew weigth shift, don’t overbone the rig, set it up tall and lose.

Option I Typically I believe the Queens Cup is won by sailing fast and minimizing distance sailed. The light hind end winds this year could call for a change. Following a strategy of heating up your angle with the shifts should keep you fast. However, as the forecast calls for shifts in direction, but not velocity increases so I don’t see a clear benefit to going north of the straight line.

Option II Staying patient and dealing with the breeze as it decreases and goes aft could be a strong long term play. If this forecast holds a patient rhumb line strategy could eventually see you switching to a big genoa or double head rig with a good angle to the finish.

Special Situation A word on the finish and conditions near the Michigan shore. Water temperatures are in the range of 50 to 55 degrees. With the current cold weather we are experiencing (temperatures are about 15° below normal) there should not be enough difference to spark much of a breeze. If the weather was warmer you might expect a strong early morning sea breeze. However, air temperatures will not exceed that of the land until noon. This will cut down the chances of the breeze picking up as you near the finish.

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