Yesterday morning @ 0542 my Weather Bug was beeping, which means a weather alert has been issued. Substance of the warning was that an Alberta Clipper was on the way. 5-12 inches of snow and 45 mph winds were expected.
By 1130 this prediction had dropped to 3-5 inches.

Muskegon ended up with 3.5 inches of snow on Wednesday. Depending on which prediction you use, this was as expected.

Still, I wondered did any place in Michigan get 12″ of snow? According to weather spotter reports filed last night, Arcadia MI did receive 12″ of snow. Nearer to Muskegon, Baldwin received 6 inches.

Why might a prediction be made and then so quickly changed? According to the Gaylord National Weather Service office, “Meteorologists consider many factors when predicting lake effect snow. Among them…wind direction is perhaps the most important in determining who will receive the heaviest snowfall. A wind direction change of just 20 degrees can have a big impact.”

Was there a wind shift in Muskegon? Well, at 0300 it was ESE, then at 0500 SW. It stayed SW until 1500 when it went WSW. The two predictions I noted above, were during a period of steady SW wind. It’s not clear to me if the wind was a factor in the prediction change or not.

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