Around the World of Sailing

13 March 2002

This weeks features:

Finish Line

The following American sailors are homeward bound via Leg 5
of the Volvo Ocean race to Miami. Of Dee Smith, Peter
Pendleton (Amer Sports One), Lisa McDonald, Katie Pettibone,
Melissa Purdy (Amer Sports Too), Mark Rudiger, Chris Larson,
Michael Howard, (Assa Abloy) John Kostecki (illbruck)

Water Level Update

Weekly Water Level Update
Available on line at:
http://www.torresen.com/atwos/2001/oc/1024/frw.htm

Below you'll find water level info that pertains
to Lake Michigan and Huron.
For information on other lakes see:
http://huron.lre.usace.army.mil/levels/weekly.html

Difference from Chart Datum -2
Difference from last month +1
Difference from last year +7
Difference from long term average for March -15
Difference from Record High -45
Difference from Record Low +15
Forecast for 8 April 2002 +3

Rowing Reporter

The Rowing Reporter is a weekly column of commentary and
observations by Ike Stephenson, Marine Informationist. It
concentrates on the home waters of Around the World of
Sailing, Lake Michigan and Muskegon Lake.
****************

Water Level Up or Down
	It's official.  Lake Michigan's water level in the
summer of 2002 will be up.  Or that it is it could be up
not much, or down.
	The Army Corps of Engineers calls for an 8 inch
increase by July compared to 2001.   However, the NOAA
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory does not
expect a rise.
	The Rowing Reporter contacted both organizations
and asked them to present a case for their view.  We'll
begin with the optimistic view.
	John Love stated he expects a water level about
9 inches above last summer's peak.  The main reason for
this rise is 2001's wet fall. From August to November
precipitation was 35% above the long term average.
	This water boost has kept the level above last
year throughout the winter.  Currently it is 7 inches
above 2001.
	Combine this with the fact that there is near
average (only 10% below) snow water equivalent near Lake
Superior and you have enough ingredients to forecast an
increase in the water level.
	NOAA takes a bit of an opposing view.  Cynthia
Sellinger looked more to factors of the winter weather.
She stated that the lakes lacked ice cover to prevent
evaporation of water already present.  Second there isn't
enough snowpack to provide for a spring runoff and
therefore spring rise.  Next, NOAA predicts average to
above average temperatures for spring.  Also they see
only average precipitation.  This combination will not
make up for winter evaporation and lack of snow pack.
The one saving factor could be above average precipitation.
Without that Sellinger says, "I can't see the Lakes getting
above last years [level]."
	Out of this I precept the following synthesized
alternative view. At the beginning of the month in 2002
the lake level has been: +9,+8,+6 and +7 currently. Above
normal but declining.  Although the conditions for water
level increase haven't been present it has at least
stayed steady.  The Corps of Engineers prediction makes
sense in the current time field, while NOAA's makes more
sense taking into account factors that are supposed to
drive water levels.
*************
Snow Fall Follow Up
	I have received more information on the abnormal
snowfall pattern mentioned in last week's item 'Winter
Effects'.  In particular there has been an inversion of
the typical snowfall rates in Kalamazoo and Muskegon.
	William Marino from the National Weather Service
in Grand Rapids responded with a possible explanation for
this.  A warm winter must be present.  This doesn't mean
that any warm winter will trigger this pattern, but that
above normal warmth must exist.
	The warm temperatures cause a decline in lake
effect snowfall, which Muskegon is prone to.  It doesn't
stop lake enhanced snowfall. Essentially the maximum amount
of lake affect snowfall moves further inland, away from
Muskegon towards Kalamazoo.  A similar pattern occurred in
1951-52.
************
Dodge Morgan Fires Away
	Last time the name Dodge Morgan was in the Rowing
Reporter it was in regards to his book The Voyage of
American Promise.  Morgan is still associated with a print
career as owner of the Casco Bay Weekly an alternative
newspaper in Portland Maine.
	Last week Morgan fired the editor, deputy editor,
and both writers in a cost-cutting move.  Morgan wanted
the papers budget cut to $ 135,000. Editor Chris Busby
couldn't pare it past $ 163,000.  When the editor said
that staff reduction would lessen quality Morgan responded
with the firings.  Morgan said: "I wanted to make a point
of calling them on their threat."
	Morgan, who was in the radar detector business,
bought the paper in 1990.
	Perhaps the moral is that after sailing around the
world solo, firing a staff is not much of an obstacle for
Morgan.
***********
Book Scout Look Out
	I spied this book at a local purveyor of literary
bargains.  They are especially strong in discounted yet
recent hardcovers.
	Consider these excerpts from the bibliography of
Robert Louis Stevenson: New Arabian Nights, Treasure Island,
Kidnapped, In the South Seas, and 'The Education of an
Engineer: More Random Memories'.  Does the thought of the
conceiver of Long John Silver being an engineer bring you up
short?
	'Tis true that Robert Louis Stevenson came from a
family of engineers in particular lighthouse building ones.
In fact he was in the third generation of Stevenson's
covered in The Lighthouse Stevensons by Bella Bathurst.
	His grandfather Robert Stevenson built Bell Rock
Lighthouse on a submerged reef of Scotland.   His uncle
Alan built Skerryvore Light again in the midst of the
notorious Scottish seas.  Another Uncle, David built
Muckle Flugga light on land at Scotland's northern most
point.  Finally along with his father Thomas, Robert Louis
built Dhu Heartach at sea 10 miles from the Isle of Mull.
	The Lighthouse Stevenson's is an appealing book
for those interested in lighthouses, building things or
just how tough some things can be to do.
	Stevenson Lighthouse Links
Bell Rock http://www.bellrock.org.uk/
Muckle Flugga http://dc3mf.tripod.com/Muckle.htm
Skerryvore http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/gshaw/skerryvore.htm