The synoptic picture for the race is mixed. It begins with a high coming in Friday night before the race. A low will appear but will stay to the north. The main weather maker is a cold front that will cross the lake on Monday. High pressure follows this.
Wind Direction: The forecasts for the race presents a straight forward pattern for wind direction. NE is the expected direction for the start. The wind is then expected to start veering, and eventually going NW when the cold front passes.
Wind Velocity: Lasts years slow race has greatly influenced peoples expectations. The good news is that the word variable is not to be seen in the forecasts and numbers like 10, 10-20 etc. are shown. The general trend should be more wind as time goes by and more wind as the fleet sails north.
Strategy: An ugly early course towards Wisconisn will likely be considered. Playing the west shore and then crossing over with a good angle as the wind gets to SW and South will be a play for many.
A second option is to base your race on timing the cold front. This front is currently expected to pass from north to south on Monday. Sailing a race that gets you north fast may allow you to get to the 20 knot pressure expected to be brought by the cold front.
With synoptic conditions expected to produce sufficient wind, hugging the Michigan shore and looking for a sea breeze to build off the temperature difference between water and land probably will not pay.
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