Next 36 Hours Critical
UPDATE NUMBER 2 for JUNE 24
Please refer to this morning’s email for more details
* ELLEN SAILING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF OCCLUDED COLD FRONT: waiting game for front to overtake Ellen. She hopes to have stayed ahead of it for long enough that the winds behind it will be favourable NorthWesterlies, allowing her to head to Lizard.
* AFTER A HUGE 24 HOUR RUN, JUST 30 MILES FROM THE RECORD,<< B&Q>> is in good shape, Ellen extremely happy with her peformance. In the big surfing of yesterday she was “cool and dependable”
* ALTHOUGH ON PAPER ELLEN NOW 24 HOURS BEHIND BOURGNON’S RECORD RUN, once Ellen is able to head north east she should immediately start to gain on him. Next 36 hours critical.
* LONG TERM WEATHER suggests a fast climb for next 2 days once front is through, but big question is then whether there will be a blocking high pressure ridge in the English Channel on Monday.
LISTEN TO THE UNEDITED AUDIO MP3 WITH AN EXHAUSTED ELLEN: Communications by
* NEXT MEDIA UPDATE on web 0800gmt tomorrow, email mid-morning
STATISTICS AT 1400GMT 24 JUNE
Elapsed time: 2d 15h 50m
Ahead/behind record: 24h behind
Existing record: 7d 2h 34m 42s
Distance covered: 905
Distance to finish: 1950
Position: 37 41 40N; 47 40 32W
Average boat speed (VMG) towards finish so far: 14.14
Average boat speed (VMG) now required to beat record: 18.22
Current boat speed: 21.2
Weather conditions: Still waiting for that wind shift to the north!
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SUMMARY OF LAST 24 HOURS, AND COMMENT ON THE 510 MILE DAY (24 HOUR RECORD STANDS AT JUST 540 MILES)
“Last 24 hours pretty tough sitting on the front of a small low tracking east…conditions got a lot worse, with wind speeds up to 43 knots, boats speeds have been astronomical averaging at times up to 30 knots…
I feel very very tired…we sailed very quickly in the night, but this morning went through a light patch so speed dropped to ‘just below’ 20 knots. This meant that we couldn’t get the 24 hour record, but its hard to sail in a straight line for 24 hours especially when we are aiming for the Lizard.”
ON THE CRITICAL WEATHER TRANSITION TODAY
“We have a front very close to us and once we go through that front, the wind will go in to the north west and that wind will hopefully take us to the mouth of the English Channel…but it is an occluded front, very trick, and there could be light winds in there, hard to get through it, lots of sail changes.”
CAN THE RECORD STILL BE BROKEN?
“It all depends on how this front passage goes…still stand a chance of breaking the record….if we get in to the NWerly winds quickly then we can make progress to the north. If we sail the distance the routing is suggesting at present, we will have to average 20 knots to break the record.”
Very much still achievable!
FURTHER REFLEECTION ON LAST NIGHT’S BIG WAVE
“Last night we got pretty hard by a rogue wave, sailing along with three reefs and staysail. I was slowing hte boat down thinking to take out one of the reefs, but sometimes going slow in those conditions is not always a good idea…and we got hit very hard. We got thrown on our side, 30 to 45 degrees, it was pretty violent and made a huge bang [as the wave hit the underside of the beams and float]. It was a bit of a shock and it certainly hit us very hard.”
HOW IS THE BOAT?
“B&Q has been fantastic. Yesterday was some of the best sailing of my life. [even when we were going very fast] she was cool and felt very dependable.”
WEATHER BRIEFING: from Commander’s Weather to Ellen 1200 June 24
In uncut form so you can see the information to digest by skipper…
Summary: Try to minimize southing in this nice westerly to minimize distance
and when winds diminish to < 20 kts time to gybe and get north of the
front.
1) Nice to see you making good time eastward staying south of the frontal
boundary in 25-30 kt W winds.
a) But once the breeze drops to < 20 kts think about gibing to port to
get to other side of
Front and the N-NNW wind.
2) By being further south you have delayed frontal passage but it will
overtake you in the next 3-6 hours.
a) Winds shift abruptly to N-NNW( 15-20 kts ) likely by 18 utc.
b) But again if winds drop to < 20 then gybe to get to other side
of front..
3) After you go onto port sail as fast as you can toward the finish.
4) The NW wind behind the strengthening north central Atlantic low likely
to come in surges but should remain in the manageable 20-30 kt range much
of the time tonight into Friday night.
a) Few gusts to 30-35 kts possible on leading edge of
any squally showers.
5) Later Friday night and Saturday the winds will slowly diminish as the
big low lifts northward.
6) There will also be a slow backing trend then as well likely to 270 by
late Sat pm.
7) This will lift you up toward 50n but as you get east of 25w winds will
continue to back to south of west.
a) Then can go back onto starboard and head for finish. 
Guidance for Monday still seems to be erratic with 00 utc guidance today
showing ridge poking up toward the Irish Sea 12 utc Mon to 00 utc Tue.
9) This will make for a slow tricky finish .
10) What we will be hoping for is that this ridge is delayed and you stay
in decent wind of 15-20 kts getting in before the ridge really builds in.
Wind forecasts: Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC
Thu, June 24
15: 260-280/ 25-20 gybe to port when winds drop to < 20 kts.
18: bcmg 330-360/17-22
Weather overcast with a brief squall shower or 2 next 3-6 hours.
Seas becoming confused after windshift 8-12 feet
Fri, June 25
00: 320-340/18-25, now we are heading fast at or just S of the finish
line!!
06: 310-330/25-30
12: 310-330/18-25, near 42 30N/38 30W
18: 320-340/25-30 g 35 - new surge of wind
Weather Cloudy to partly cloudy, a few quick hitting, squally showers
Seas 8-12 feet
Sat, June 26
00: 310-330/20-30
06: 290-310/20-25
12: 300-280/20-25, near 47n/28 30w, pour it on speed-wise!!
18: 280-260/18-25
Weather Partly cloudy.
Seas 8-12 feet N Swell
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