(C)update: Semi Final Previews and Prognostication
Beginning 2 January the 6 remaining teams will sail the
Challenger Semi Finals. The format will be a double round robin,
a total of 10 races per boat. The winner of the each race gets
1 point, with the top 2 scorers advancing to the finals. Pairings
will be determined in a drawing on 30 December.
This column will attempt to look into the future and figure
out which 2 teams will advance. We'll use a number of factors:
consistency, speed, between rounds developments, reliability etc.
Alphabetically, America One is the first of the semi finalists.
The semi finals will see America One debut their 2nd IACC sloop USA 61.
America One has spent the time changing and optimizing it. As a bench
mark they used their proven boat USA 49. America One has shown great
consistency, their worst rounds were 7-3, their best 8-2. Breakdowns,
especially with their spinnakers have hurt. With a new boat, and a
good sailing team, America One should see the semis.
Next is one of the two single boat campaigns in the semis,
America True. America True has been quiet between rounds. It is known
that New Zealander Chris Dickson joined the team for match racing
practice. True's crew work has been impeccable and breakdowns rare.
They have been solid tactically. In a regatta where tactics and
reliability have been essential, America True will contend for the
semifinals but fall short.
France went from near the bottom to the 6th and final spot in
round 3. In round 3 they won 7 races, the first two rounds combined
they won 5. Although France's '6th Sense' has speeded up it's likely
that only in light air will she be fast. France's crew has improved,
but not enough to make the semi finals.
The Italian Prada team was the star of the first two round
robins. The 3rd round was tougher, but still they lost only 2 races.
Prada's boats have been reliable and the crew steady. However, round 3
saw a bit of nervousness in their performance. Also, observers feel
their 2nd boat may not be as fast as is necessary. Prada's results
have fallen slightly every round. Look for that to continue as they
finish below 2nd and miss the finals.
The Nippon challenge from Japan has several positive attributes
heading into the semi finals. They have the best match racer in the
world at the helm. They also had their best performance in round 3 as
their 2nd boat provided a speed boost.
Lately they made news by being the first challenger to sail
with Team New Zealand. Reports indicate that the speed of the boats
were similar.
Speed similarity has been a feature of this regatta. Now that
the Peter Gilmour has one the faster boats, look for his skill to take
Nippon to the Challenger Finals.
The last semi finalist is Team Dennis Conner. They will sail
their only boat, Stars and Stripes 2000. They have been a .500 team
for 2 of the 3 rounds. Stars and Stripes is the opposite of the
French boat, preferring heavy weather. Stars and Stripes features
a wily and tough crew, but will not be in the challenger finals.
As with any competition, beginning the 2nd they'll play the
games. Torresen Sailing Site will provide coverage.